Sources: Morgan Stanley, Georgia Innovations, Cleveland Research
Tracking transportation trends helps us to predict demand for the future. Take a look at the most recent truckload freight trends and updates from the past few months.
Since the prior update, the dry van truckload freight index has trended down, underperforming seasonally. During summer there is typically a peak in the truckload freight index; however, the index has been declining since early June, which is driven, in part, by the mild summer weather.
Our industry contacts informed us that they are experiencing a much later beverage season this year. A cooler summer not only poses a decrease in reefer demand (freezer and refrigerator produce), but it also weakens the dry van market as water and soda are mostly shipped in dry van trailers.
We continue to believe that shippers are exiting the spot market in an effort to lock in capacity directly with carriers. As a result, we’ve seen a decline in dry van demand over the past few weeks of June and July versus the typical seasonal increase. Since the prior update, supply has expanded compared to a historical supply contraction at this time of year. The index forecast remains well below historical average levels for this time of year.
The market demand index was down 48 percent year over year in June. On a sequential basis, the index was down 3.8 percent. The typical index for this time of year is up 2.8 percent. The van rate index was down 15 percent year over year.
Take a look at the trends in a graphical representation:
Dry Van Index
Market Demand, Long-Term
Van Rate Trends, Long-Term
Truckload Rate Expectations, 3-6 Month
Interested in learning more about current transportation trends? Contact us.